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10 of 10 matches with xG: 43 goals from 36.9 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo 2–6 Lazio | 0.80–3.59 | 4% · 8% · 87% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
| AS Roma 4–2 Cagliari | 2.96–2.68 | 46% · 17% · 37% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Torino 1–3 Como | 1.17–2.28 | 18% · 19% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Como |
| AC Milan 2–4 Bologna | 1.84–2.11 | 34% · 21% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Parma 0–0 Udinese | 1.20–1.43 | 32% · 26% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Venezia 0–2 Inter | 1.67–2.39 | 27% · 19% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Genoa 2–0 Juventus | 1.05–1.28 | 30% · 28% · 42% | Close call, Genoa won |
| Monza 1–4 Napoli | 1.22–1.84 | 25% · 23% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Frosinone 5–1 Lecce | 3.40–1.42 | 75% · 13% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta | 1.56–1.02 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.