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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 31.0 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena 1–0 Modena | 1.84–2.01 | 36% · 21% · 43% | Close call, Cesena won |
| Empoli 5–0 Bari | 1.59–0.26 | 71% · 23% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Empoli |
| Pescara 0–1 Padova | 1.67–2.01 | 33% · 21% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Padova |
| Sudtirol 0–1 Avellino | 1.67–0.77 | 59% · 24% · 17% | Won against the xG: Avellino |
| Venezia 3–0 Mantova | 3.27–0.40 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Reggiana 0–1 Frosinone | 1.11–1.15 | 35% · 29% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Catanzaro 3–2 Virtus Entella | 2.20–2.02 | 43% · 20% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Palermo 5–0 Carrarese | 4.25–0.31 | 96% · 3% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Juve Stabia 2–2 Monza | 0.60–2.09 | 9% · 18% · 72% | Draw against the xG: Monza had 72% |
| Spezia 1–0 Sampdoria | 1.46–0.29 | 67% · 26% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Spezia |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.