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8 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 26.0 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli 1–3 Palermo | 2.82–1.97 | 56% · 18% · 26% | Won against the xG: Palermo |
| Sampdoria 3–2 Carrarese | 2.18–0.76 | 70% · 18% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Sampdoria |
| Modena 1–2 Catanzaro | 1.77–1.69 | 40% · 22% · 37% | Close call, Catanzaro won |
| Mantova 0–1 Reggiana | 1.12–0.52 | 50% · 32% · 17% | Won against the xG: Reggiana |
| Avellino 1–1 Venezia | 0.21–3.79 | 1% · 4% · 96% | Draw against the xG: Venezia had 96% |
| Frosinone 3–0 Juve Stabia | 1.57–0.46 | 65% · 24% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Bari 1–1 Pescara | 2.33–0.72 | 74% · 17% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Bari had 74% |
| Virtus Entella 0–1 Spezia | 0.77–3.29 | 5% · 10% · 85% | Win in line with xG for Spezia |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.