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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 32.0 xG (0.72 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo 1–0 Sampdoria | 2.01–0.26 | 80% · 16% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Juve Stabia 2–0 Empoli | 2.35–0.63 | 76% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Juve Stabia |
| Venezia 2–0 Monza | 2.33–0.99 | 67% · 18% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Reggiana 1–2 Padova | 1.18–2.25 | 19% · 20% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Padova |
| Sudtirol 0–0 Bari | 0.37–0.79 | 16% · 41% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Spezia 0–2 Modena | 0.56–4.07 | 2% · 5% · 93% | Win in line with xG for Modena |
| Catanzaro 1–0 Avellino | 1.48–0.74 | 55% · 26% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Cesena 3–2 Mantova | 4.07–1.72 | 78% · 11% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Cesena |
| Carrarese 3–1 Virtus Entella | 2.55–1.56 | 59% · 18% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
| Pescara 1–2 Frosinone | 1.26–0.81 | 47% · 29% · 24% | Won against the xG: Frosinone |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.