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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 30.1 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bari 1–2 Catanzaro | 0.90–1.33 | 25% · 28% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Monza 4–1 Carrarese | 3.51–0.50 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Frosinone 2–1 Spezia | 2.01–1.85 | 43% · 21% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Cesena 1–1 Juve Stabia | 1.69–0.80 | 59% · 24% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Cesena had 59% |
| Modena 1–2 Venezia | 0.61–4.04 | 2% · 5% · 93% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Padova 1–1 Sampdoria | 0.51–1.23 | 15% · 30% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Sampdoria had 54% |
| Avellino 2–2 Palermo | 1.98–2.28 | 34% · 20% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Pescara 2–1 Reggiana | 2.23–0.69 | 73% · 17% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Pescara |
| Virtus Entella 1–1 Sudtirol | 0.70–0.81 | 29% · 37% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mantova 0–1 Empoli | 1.47–0.91 | 50% · 26% · 23% | Won against the xG: Empoli |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.