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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 30.9 xG (0.94 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria | 2.27–0.52 | 77% · 16% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Avellino |
| Benevento 2–0 Cesena | 1.74–0.53 | 67% · 22% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Benevento |
| Empoli 2–4 Palermo | 1.91–4.91 | 8% · 8% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Virtus Entella 1–1 Juve Stabia | 1.11–0.99 | 38% · 30% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sudtirol 0–0 Ascoli | 1.02–0.58 | 45% · 34% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vicenza Virtus 0–3 Pisa | 0.61–2.74 | 6% · 12% · 82% | Win in line with xG for Pisa |
| Arezzo 0–0 Cremonese | 1.01–0.21 | 56% · 36% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Arezzo had 56% |
| Catanzaro 1–3 Mantova | 1.15–2.94 | 12% · 14% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Mantova |
| Padova 0–2 Carrarese | 0.68–1.61 | 16% · 25% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
| Modena 3–2 Hellas Verona | 2.58–1.83 | 54% · 19% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Modena |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.