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10 of 10 matches with xG: 25 goals from 29.6 xG (0.84 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli 0–2 Vicenza Virtus | 0.57–2.01 | 9% · 19% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Vicenza Virtus |
| Avellino 0–1 Padova | 2.18–0.86 | 68% · 19% · 14% | Won against the xG: Padova |
| Cremonese 0–1 Juve Stabia | 1.63–0.73 | 59% · 24% · 17% | Won against the xG: Juve Stabia |
| Virtus Entella 0–1 Mantova | 1.37–1.01 | 45% · 27% · 28% | Won against the xG: Mantova |
| Modena 3–0 Cesena | 2.19–0.18 | 84% · 13% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Modena |
| Sudtirol 1–1 Sampdoria | 1.84–0.63 | 66% · 21% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Sudtirol had 66% |
| Catanzaro 1–6 Ascoli | 1.86–3.93 | 14% · 12% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Ascoli |
| Arezzo 0–3 Benevento | 0.41–2.72 | 4% · 11% · 86% | Win in line with xG for Benevento |
| Palermo 2–1 Carrarese | 1.93–1.32 | 52% · 22% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Hellas Verona 1–1 Pisa | 0.69–1.55 | 17% · 25% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Pisa had 58% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.