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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 25.4 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento 1–1 Catanzaro | 2.54–0.47 | 82% · 13% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Benevento had 82% |
| Ascoli 2–0 Sampdoria | 0.66–0.70 | 29% · 39% · 32% | Close call, Ascoli won |
| Cesena 2–1 Empoli | 1.32–0.62 | 54% · 29% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Cesena |
| Virtus Entella 1–1 Avellino | 0.61–0.88 | 24% · 36% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vicenza Virtus 1–2 Modena | 0.34–1.15 | 11% · 32% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Modena |
| Mantova 0–2 Cremonese | 1.97–1.32 | 53% · 22% · 26% | Won against the xG: Cremonese |
| Padova 2–0 Sudtirol | 1.47–1.85 | 31% · 23% · 47% | Close call, Padova won |
| Pisa 3–3 Palermo | 2.50–1.32 | 63% · 18% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Pisa had 63% |
| Carrarese 2–1 Arezzo | 2.67–0.85 | 76% · 15% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
| Juve Stabia 0–1 Hellas Verona | 0.85–1.35 | 24% · 28% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Hellas Verona |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.