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9 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 23.2 xG (0.91 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo 5–2 Mito Hollyhock | 2.94–0.77 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Kashima | 0.75–1.76 | 16% · 23% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 0.67–0.33 | 39% · 45% · 16% | Close call, Fagiano Okayama won |
| Shimizu S-pulse 0–2 Nagoya Grampus | 0.24–2.09 | 3% · 15% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Nagoya Grampus |
| Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 JEF United Chiba | 0.66–2.12 | 10% · 18% · 71% | Won against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1 Cerezo Osaka | 2.66–1.01 | 72% · 16% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Gamba Osaka | 1.87–1.96 | 38% · 21% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Machida Zelvia 0–0 Tokyo Verdy | 0.89–0.17 | 53% · 40% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Machida Zelvia had 53% |
| Vissel Kobe 1–0 Kyoto Sanga | 1.45–0.82 | 52% · 27% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.