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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 23.7 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–2 V-varen Nagasaki | 0.57–1.30 | 16% · 29% · 55% | Win in line with xG for V-varen Nagasaki |
| Tokyo Verdy 2–1 Kashima | 1.37–0.93 | 47% · 27% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Tokyo Verdy |
| Avispa Fukuoka 2–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0.64–1.09 | 21% · 32% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| JEF United Chiba 2–3 Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.75–1.03 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Won against the xG: Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Vissel Kobe 0–0 Cerezo Osaka | 1.52–1.32 | 42% · 25% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kyoto Sanga 1–1 Gamba Osaka | 0.97–0.62 | 43% · 35% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Fagiano Okayama | 0.69–1.89 | 13% · 21% · 66% | Draw against the xG: Fagiano Okayama had 66% |
| Urawa 2–0 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.34–0.88 | 47% · 28% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Urawa |
| Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 FC Tokyo | 1.07–2.58 | 14% · 17% · 70% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Mito Hollyhock 2–2 Machida Zelvia | 1.20–0.98 | 41% · 29% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.