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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 24.6 xG (0.90 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Cerezo Osaka | 2.58–1.30 | 65% · 17% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Shimizu S-pulse had 65% |
| V-varen Nagasaki 2–1 Fagiano Okayama | 1.33–0.52 | 57% · 29% · 15% | Win in line with xG for V-varen Nagasaki |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Kyoto Sanga | 0.67–1.36 | 18% · 28% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Kyoto Sanga had 53% |
| Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Gamba Osaka | 1.50–1.07 | 47% · 26% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Nagoya Grampus |
| FC Tokyo 0–3 JEF United Chiba | 2.36–2.03 | 46% · 19% · 34% | Close call, JEF United Chiba won |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–1 Vissel Kobe | 2.40–0.52 | 79% · 15% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 79% |
| Kashima 3–0 Mito Hollyhock | 2.78–0.28 | 89% · 9% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Machida Zelvia 2–0 Yokohama F. Marinos | 0.34–0.49 | 19% · 51% · 30% | Close call, Machida Zelvia won |
| Kawasaki Frontale 1–0 Tokyo Verdy | 0.35–0.49 | 20% · 51% · 30% | Close call, Kawasaki Frontale won |
| Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Urawa | 1.06–1.14 | 33% · 29% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Urawa |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.