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9 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 23.8 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy 2–2 Machida Zelvia | 0.98–1.07 | 32% · 30% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 0–2 Urawa | 0.95–1.23 | 28% · 29% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Urawa |
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 Vissel Kobe | 1.94–0.31 | 77% · 18% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Shimizu S-pulse |
| Kawasaki Frontale 1–2 FC Tokyo | 0.40–1.51 | 10% · 25% · 65% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Nagoya Grampus 1–3 V-varen Nagasaki | 2.10–1.55 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Won against the xG: V-varen Nagasaki |
| Kashima 2–0 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.15–1.28 | 33% · 27% · 39% | Close call, Kashima won |
| Mito Hollyhock 1–1 JEF United Chiba | 1.33–0.72 | 51% · 28% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Mito Hollyhock had 51% |
| Fagiano Okayama 1–2 Gamba Osaka | 3.27–1.24 | 77% · 13% · 11% | Won against the xG: Gamba Osaka |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0.96–1.79 | 20% · 23% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.