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9 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 25.3 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba 2–1 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.84–3.01 | 22% · 16% · 62% | Won against the xG: JEF United Chiba |
| FC Tokyo 3–0 Yokohama F. Marinos | 2.42–0.14 | 88% · 11% · 1% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Cerezo Osaka 0–0 Shimizu S-pulse | 1.96–0.42 | 74% · 19% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Cerezo Osaka had 74% |
| Urawa 2–0 Mito Hollyhock | 1.35–0.70 | 52% · 28% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Urawa |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–5 Nagoya Grampus | 1.63–2.34 | 27% · 20% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Nagoya Grampus |
| Kashima 2–0 Tokyo Verdy | 1.30–0.16 | 67% · 28% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Fagiano Okayama 1–0 Kyoto Sanga | 1.74–1.07 | 53% · 24% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Fagiano Okayama |
| Gamba Osaka 3–2 V-varen Nagasaki | 2.56–0.53 | 81% · 13% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Machida Zelvia 1–1 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.17–0.98 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.