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9 of 10 matches with xG: 15 goals from 23.8 xG (0.63 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos 2–0 JEF United Chiba | 1.88–0.52 | 70% · 20% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Machida Zelvia | 0.59–0.83 | 24% · 38% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| Mito Hollyhock 1–1 FC Tokyo | 1.43–1.19 | 43% · 26% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Nagoya Grampus 0–3 Vissel Kobe | 2.03–2.67 | 30% · 18% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Fagiano Okayama | 1.36–0.99 | 45% · 27% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kashima 1–0 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.76–1.67 | 41% · 23% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Gamba Osaka | 1.41–0.58 | 57% · 27% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Tokyo Verdy 1–0 Urawa | 1.19–0.98 | 41% · 29% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Tokyo Verdy |
| V-varen Nagasaki 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.67–1.09 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Win in line with xG for V-varen Nagasaki |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.