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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 28.6 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba 3–2 Tokyo Verdy | 2.22–1.48 | 54% · 20% · 25% | Win in line with xG for JEF United Chiba |
| Mito Hollyhock 1–1 Kashima | 0.78–2.65 | 9% · 14% · 77% | Draw against the xG: Kashima had 77% |
| Nagoya Grampus 3–0 Cerezo Osaka | 2.03–1.03 | 60% · 21% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Nagoya Grampus |
| Gamba Osaka 2–0 Kyoto Sanga | 3.72–0.09 | 97% · 3% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| V-varen Nagasaki 0–3 Shimizu S-pulse | 0.53–1.22 | 16% · 31% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Shimizu S-pulse |
| Kashiwa Reysol 3–0 Yokohama F. Marinos | 2.21–0.30 | 82% · 14% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Kashiwa Reysol |
| Fagiano Okayama 1–4 Vissel Kobe | 1.14–2.15 | 19% · 20% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka | 2.05–1.33 | 54% · 21% · 25% | Won against the xG: Avispa Fukuoka |
| FC Tokyo 0–0 Machida Zelvia | 0.45–0.79 | 19% · 40% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kawasaki Frontale 3–2 Urawa | 1.10–1.30 | 31% · 27% · 41% | Close call, Kawasaki Frontale won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.