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10 of 10 matches with xG: 44 goals from 36.2 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch 1–4 Vitesse | 3.01–1.68 | 65% · 16% · 19% | Won against the xG: Vitesse |
| FC Volendam 6–1 Dordrecht | 6.33–1.19 | 96% · 2% · 1% | Win in line with xG for FC Volendam |
| Jong Ajax 3–2 Helmond Sport | 1.11–0.70 | 45% · 32% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Jong Ajax |
| Jong AZ 1–2 MVV | 0.30–0.27 | 21% · 61% · 18% | Close call, MVV won |
| FC OSS 2–1 Jong Utrecht | 1.30–1.24 | 38% · 27% · 35% | Win in line with xG for FC OSS |
| Roda 2–2 NAC Breda | 2.25–3.31 | 25% · 16% · 59% | Draw against the xG: NAC Breda had 59% |
| Waalwijk 2–2 Jong PSV U21 | 1.15–1.11 | 37% · 29% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| De Graafschap 1–4 Almere City FC | 1.24–2.60 | 16% · 17% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| FC Eindhoven 1–3 Heracles | 0.76–1.72 | 16% · 23% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Heracles |
| VVV Venlo 4–0 Emmen | 2.51–2.42 | 42% · 18% · 39% | Win in line with xG for VVV Venlo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.