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9 of 9 matches with xG: 29 goals from 28.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen 3–0 Almere City FC | 3.45–0.84 | 85% · 9% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Heerenveen |
| FC Volendam 0–5 PEC Zwolle | 0.90–1.89 | 17% · 22% · 61% | Win in line with xG for PEC Zwolle |
| Fortuna Sittard 3–1 Vitesse | 1.90–1.05 | 57% · 22% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Fortuna Sittard |
| Waalwijk 2–2 Excelsior | 1.73–0.90 | 57% · 24% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Waalwijk had 57% |
| Heracles 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.05–0.95 | 37% · 31% · 32% | Close call, Sparta Rotterdam won |
| Feyenoord 1–2 PSV Eindhoven | 1.19–1.58 | 29% · 25% · 46% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Ajax | 0.67–3.41 | 4% · 8% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| Go Ahead Eagles 1–3 Twente | 1.27–2.55 | 17% · 18% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
| Utrecht 1–1 AZ Alkmaar | 2.04–1.29 | 55% · 21% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Utrecht had 55% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.