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9 of 9 matches with xG: 20 goals from 26.2 xG (0.76 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam 1–0 Utrecht | 2.64–0.63 | 80% · 13% · 7% | Win in line with xG for FC Volendam |
| Heerenveen 1–1 NEC Nijmegen | 2.12–1.03 | 62% · 20% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Heerenveen had 62% |
| Almere City FC 1–0 Waalwijk | 2.24–0.55 | 76% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| Go Ahead Eagles 4–0 Heracles | 1.67–1.80 | 36% · 22% · 42% | Close call, Go Ahead Eagles won |
| Vitesse 0–0 Excelsior | 1.36–0.94 | 47% · 28% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| PEC Zwolle 0–2 Feyenoord | 0.74–2.22 | 11% · 18% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| Fortuna Sittard 0–3 Twente | 0.10–1.77 | 2% · 18% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
| Ajax 1–2 AZ Alkmaar | 0.23–1.70 | 5% · 21% · 75% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0–4 PSV Eindhoven | 0.29–4.14 | 1% · 3% · 96% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.