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9 of 9 matches with xG: 32 goals from 35.8 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven 5–2 Fortuna Sittard | 2.20–0.73 | 71% · 18% · 11% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Ajax 1–1 Heerenveen | 1.11–1.06 | 37% · 29% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| NAC Breda 1–0 Go Ahead Eagles | 0.63–0.40 | 35% · 45% · 20% | Close call, NAC Breda won |
| Feyenoord 3–1 FC Volendam | 4.82–0.97 | 93% · 5% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| Telstar 2–2 Excelsior | 3.21–3.45 | 39% · 16% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Heracles 8–2 PEC Zwolle | 4.51–1.14 | 89% · 6% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Heracles |
| Groningen 1–1 Twente | 3.33–1.44 | 74% · 13% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Groningen had 74% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 AZ Alkmaar | 0.56–2.62 | 6% · 13% · 81% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen | 1.51–2.14 | 27% · 21% · 52% | Won against the xG: Utrecht |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.