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9 of 9 matches with xG: 28 goals from 23.8 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar 1–0 FC Volendam | 2.39–0.48 | 80% · 14% · 6% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Twente 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 2.07–0.40 | 77% · 17% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Twente had 77% |
| PSV Eindhoven 5–1 Excelsior | 2.30–0.50 | 78% · 15% · 6% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Groningen 0–0 NAC Breda | 1.30–0.82 | 48% · 29% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Heerenveen 2–2 Feyenoord | 0.92–1.08 | 30% · 31% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Go Ahead Eagles 2–2 Fortuna Sittard | 1.72–0.84 | 58% · 24% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Go Ahead Eagles had 58% |
| Telstar 2–3 Ajax | 0.77–1.74 | 16% · 23% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2–0 Heracles | 2.39–0.33 | 83% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Sparta Rotterdam |
| NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht | 1.99–1.78 | 44% · 21% · 35% | Close call, Utrecht won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.