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9 of 9 matches with xG: 31 goals from 31.8 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles 0–0 Utrecht | 0.31–2.17 | 4% · 15% · 81% | Draw against the xG: Utrecht had 81% |
| Groningen 3–1 Ajax | 1.92–1.86 | 41% · 21% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Groningen |
| PSV Eindhoven 2–1 AZ Alkmaar | 2.33–1.60 | 54% · 20% · 26% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Excelsior 1–2 Heerenveen | 2.56–1.69 | 57% · 19% · 25% | Won against the xG: Heerenveen |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 1.67–1.25 | 47% · 24% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Go Ahead Eagles 1–4 Twente | 2.03–2.34 | 35% · 20% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
| Fortuna Sittard 1–4 Telstar | 2.83–2.65 | 44% · 17% · 38% | Close call, Telstar won |
| NAC Breda 3–3 Feyenoord | 1.03–1.64 | 24% · 25% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Feyenoord had 52% |
| NEC Nijmegen 3–0 FC Volendam | 1.44–0.45 | 62% · 27% · 11% | Win in line with xG for NEC Nijmegen |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.