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9 of 9 matches with xG: 34 goals from 29.5 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen 3–3 Twente | 0.68–1.98 | 12% · 20% · 68% | Draw against the xG: Twente had 68% |
| PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Go Ahead Eagles | 3.48–0.42 | 92% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Utrecht 3–1 FC Volendam | 2.54–0.46 | 82% · 13% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Utrecht |
| Ajax 0–2 AZ Alkmaar | 1.24–2.24 | 20% · 20% · 60% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| NAC Breda 2–2 PEC Zwolle | 2.48–1.46 | 60% · 19% · 22% | Draw against the xG: NAC Breda had 60% |
| Telstar 2–3 Heerenveen | 2.58–2.69 | 39% · 18% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Heerenveen |
| Groningen 0–2 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.22–0.88 | 44% · 29% · 27% | Won against the xG: Sparta Rotterdam |
| Excelsior 1–0 Fortuna Sittard | 1.08–1.16 | 34% · 29% · 38% | Close call, Excelsior won |
| Heracles 0–7 Feyenoord | 0.19–2.75 | 1% · 8% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.