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9 of 9 matches with xG: 31 goals from 26.7 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles 3–2 Telstar | 1.14–1.07 | 37% · 29% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Go Ahead Eagles |
| Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 1.66–0.95 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Utrecht had 54% |
| Willem II 1–6 Cambuur | 1.08–1.94 | 21% · 22% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Cambuur |
| ADO Den Haag 2–3 Heerenveen | 2.90–2.50 | 48% · 17% · 35% | Close call, Heerenveen won |
| Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior | 0.78–0.41 | 41% · 41% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Fortuna Sittard |
| NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Groningen | 1.88–1.51 | 47% · 22% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Feyenoord | 1.95–1.23 | 54% · 22% · 24% | Draw against the xG: PSV Eindhoven had 54% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax | 0.93–1.43 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| AZ Alkmaar 0–2 Twente | 1.27–2.07 | 23% · 21% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.