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9 of 9 matches with xG: 43 goals from 28.0 xG (1.54 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen 2–3 Fortuna Sittard | 1.60–0.88 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Won against the xG: Fortuna Sittard |
| Excelsior 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.32–1.03 | 43% · 28% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Excelsior |
| AZ Alkmaar 5–2 Go Ahead Eagles | 2.37–1.66 | 54% · 20% · 27% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC Nijmegen | 2.03–1.94 | 41% · 21% · 38% | Close call, NEC Nijmegen won |
| Utrecht 1–6 PSV Eindhoven | 0.30–3.58 | 1% · 5% · 94% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Feyenoord 2–2 ADO Den Haag | 2.47–0.24 | 86% · 11% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Feyenoord had 86% |
| Willem II 2–2 Heerenveen | 1.70–1.35 | 46% · 24% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Telstar 0–4 Ajax | 1.13–2.13 | 19% · 20% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| Cambuur 1–4 Twente | 0.47–1.76 | 9% · 22% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.