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8 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 23.1 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen 3–0 PEC Zwolle | 1.39–0.43 | 61% · 27% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Groningen |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0–4 Heerenveen | 0.67–1.80 | 13% · 22% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Heerenveen |
| Ajax 2–2 Excelsior | 2.51–0.82 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Ajax had 74% |
| Willem II 0–1 Fortuna Sittard | 1.01–1.31 | 29% · 28% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Fortuna Sittard |
| Feyenoord 5–0 Utrecht | 3.41–0.58 | 89% · 8% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Telstar | 2.35–0.10 | 88% · 11% · 1% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Twente 3–2 PSV Eindhoven | 2.40–1.02 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
| NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Go Ahead Eagles | 1.04–2.31 | 16% · 19% · 66% | Draw against the xG: Go Ahead Eagles had 66% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.