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9 of 9 matches with xG: 29 goals from 28.2 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen | 2.38–1.57 | 56% · 19% · 25% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Go Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.29–2.36 | 20% · 19% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Sparta Rotterdam had 61% |
| Feyenoord 2–0 AZ Alkmaar | 2.23–1.04 | 64% · 19% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Twente | 0.85–1.17 | 27% · 30% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen | 1.78–1.05 | 54% · 23% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Ajax had 54% |
| Utrecht 3–1 Willem II | 1.30–0.61 | 53% · 29% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Utrecht |
| Telstar 2–2 ADO Den Haag | 2.86–1.38 | 68% · 16% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Telstar had 68% |
| PEC Zwolle 0–1 Cambuur | 0.98–0.82 | 38% · 33% · 29% | Close call, Cambuur won |
| Excelsior 1–5 Groningen | 1.77–2.75 | 24% · 18% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Groningen |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.