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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 24.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril 4–3 Arouca | 1.71–0.78 | 60% · 24% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Estoril |
| Alverca 1–1 Rio Ave | 1.67–0.60 | 63% · 24% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Alverca had 63% |
| Tondela 0–1 Vitória Guimarães | 1.05–1.27 | 31% · 28% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Vitória Guimarães |
| Santa Clara 1–2 Sporting CP | 0.74–1.67 | 16% · 24% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Sporting CP |
| AVS 1–1 Gil Vicente | 1.75–1.95 | 35% · 22% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Estrela 1–1 Nacional | 2.22–1.26 | 59% · 20% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Estrela had 59% |
| Famalicao 0–1 FC Porto | 0.37–1.32 | 10% · 29% · 61% | Win in line with xG for FC Porto |
| Benfica 2–2 Casa Pia | 2.06–1.27 | 56% · 21% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Benfica had 56% |
| SC Braga 2–1 Moreirense | 2.06–0.91 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Win in line with xG for SC Braga |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.