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9 of 9 matches with xG: 31 goals from 24.6 xG (1.26 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao 2–3 Estrela | 2.69–0.66 | 80% · 13% · 7% | Won against the xG: Estrela |
| Estoril 4–1 Alverca | 1.30–0.75 | 50% · 29% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Estoril |
| Arouca 2–2 Gil Vicente | 1.36–1.88 | 28% · 22% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Casa Pia 0–0 Vitória Guimarães | 0.39–1.16 | 12% · 32% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Vitória Guimarães had 56% |
| SC Braga 2–2 Benfica | 1.76–1.17 | 51% · 23% · 25% | Draw against the xG: SC Braga had 51% |
| Sporting CP 4–0 Rio Ave | 3.26–0.11 | 95% · 5% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Sporting CP |
| FC Porto 2–0 AVS | 2.50–0.29 | 86% · 11% · 3% | Win in line with xG for FC Porto |
| Nacional 3–3 Santa Clara | 1.98–2.47 | 32% · 19% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Moreirense 1–0 Tondela | 0.42–0.50 | 23% · 49% · 28% | Close call, Moreirense won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.