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9 of 9 matches with xG: 27 goals from 25.2 xG (1.07 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente 1–1 Sporting CP | 0.97–1.41 | 26% · 27% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vitória Guimarães 2–1 Nacional | 0.87–1.50 | 22% · 26% · 52% | Won against the xG: Vitória Guimarães |
| Tondela 3–1 Arouca | 0.67–0.73 | 29% · 38% · 33% | Close call, Tondela won |
| Benfica 3–1 Estoril | 2.32–0.83 | 71% · 17% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Benfica |
| Estrela 3–3 SC Braga | 1.01–3.30 | 8% · 11% · 81% | Draw against the xG: SC Braga had 81% |
| AVS 0–2 Moreirense | 0.36–1.91 | 6% · 19% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Moreirense |
| Rio Ave 3–1 Casa Pia | 2.97–1.89 | 60% · 17% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Rio Ave |
| Santa Clara 0–1 FC Porto | 0.26–1.08 | 9% · 34% · 57% | Win in line with xG for FC Porto |
| Alverca 1–0 Famalicao | 2.00–1.13 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Alverca |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.