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9 of 9 matches with xG: 24 goals from 19.4 xG (1.24 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica | 0.28–1.57 | 6% · 23% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Benfica |
| Tondela 1–1 Alverca | 1.55–0.72 | 57% · 26% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Tondela had 57% |
| Casa Pia 3–2 Arouca | 2.07–1.22 | 57% · 21% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Casa Pia |
| Vitória Guimarães 2–1 Estrela | 1.49–1.02 | 48% · 26% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Vitória Guimarães |
| Gil Vicente 2–1 SC Braga | 1.24–0.67 | 50% · 30% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Gil Vicente |
| Nacional 0–1 FC Porto | 0.65–0.45 | 35% · 44% · 22% | Close call, FC Porto won |
| AVS 3–0 Estoril | 1.02–1.08 | 33% · 30% · 37% | Close call, AVS won |
| Sporting CP 1–0 Famalicao | 2.15–0.49 | 76% · 17% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Sporting CP |
| Rio Ave 1–2 Moreirense | 1.25–0.45 | 57% · 30% · 13% | Won against the xG: Moreirense |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.