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9 of 9 matches with xG: 24 goals from 25.1 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca 2–1 Arouca | 1.06–0.88 | 39% · 31% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Alverca |
| Tondela 0–2 Nacional | 1.38–1.26 | 40% · 26% · 34% | Close call, Nacional won |
| Benfica 4–1 Moreirense | 2.02–0.87 | 64% · 21% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Benfica |
| Vitória Guimarães 2–0 Rio Ave | 1.13–0.59 | 49% · 32% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Vitória Guimarães |
| Estoril 0–1 Famalicao | 0.66–1.05 | 23% · 33% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Famalicao |
| Estrela 1–2 FC Porto | 1.68–1.88 | 35% · 22% · 43% | Win in line with xG for FC Porto |
| Santa Clara 2–1 SC Braga | 2.55–0.15 | 89% · 10% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Santa Clara |
| AVS 1–1 Sporting CP | 1.66–3.36 | 16% · 14% · 70% | Draw against the xG: Sporting CP had 70% |
| Gil Vicente 2–1 Casa Pia | 1.71–1.25 | 48% · 24% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Gil Vicente |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.