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8 of 8 matches with xG: 22 goals from 24.7 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ural 3–2 Spartak Moscow | 3.37–1.12 | 80% · 11% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Ural |
| Lokomotiv 1–1 Krylia Sovetov | 0.19–3.83 | 1% · 3% · 96% | Draw against the xG: Krylia Sovetov had 96% |
| FC Orenburg 0–2 FC Krasnodar | 1.70–2.61 | 24% · 18% · 57% | Win in line with xG for FC Krasnodar |
| FC Rostov 3–0 Rubin | 1.62–1.67 | 37% · 23% · 40% | Close call, FC Rostov won |
| Dynamo 2–0 Baltika | 1.23–1.37 | 34% · 26% · 40% | Close call, Dynamo won |
| Zenit 2–0 Fakel | 1.55–0.26 | 70% · 24% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Zenit |
| CSKA Moscow 3–1 FC Sochi | 1.44–0.70 | 55% · 27% · 18% | Win in line with xG for CSKA Moscow |
| Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Akhmat | 1.32–0.76 | 50% · 29% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Nizhny Novgorod |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.