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8 of 8 matches with xG: 23 goals from 27.7 xG (0.83 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin 2–1 Krylia Sovetov | 2.11–0.86 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Rubin |
| Dynamo 2–1 CSKA Moscow | 2.15–2.13 | 40% · 20% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Dynamo |
| Baltika 0–1 Ural | 1.93–1.74 | 43% · 22% · 35% | Close call, Ural won |
| FC Krasnodar 1–1 Lokomotiv | 2.31–0.81 | 71% · 17% · 11% | Draw against the xG: FC Krasnodar had 71% |
| FC Sochi 4–0 FC Rostov | 1.18–0.71 | 47% · 31% · 22% | Win in line with xG for FC Sochi |
| Fakel 2–0 Nizhny Novgorod | 1.15–1.32 | 32% · 27% · 41% | Close call, Fakel won |
| Spartak Moscow 1–3 Zenit | 2.07–1.29 | 55% · 21% · 23% | Won against the xG: Zenit |
| Akhmat 4–0 FC Orenburg | 4.94–0.97 | 93% · 4% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Akhmat |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.