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7 of 9 matches with xG: 19 goals from 15.6 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kholood 1–2 Al-Ettifaq | 0.67–0.90 | 26% · 35% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Al-Ettifaq |
| NEOM 0–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1.09–2.32 | 16% · 19% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Al-Ahli Jeddah |
| Al Najma 1–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC | 0.59–1.55 | 14% · 25% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Al-Qadisiyah FC |
| Al-Fayha 2–0 Al-Fateh | 0.91–1.08 | 30% · 31% · 39% | Close call, Al-Fayha won |
| Al-Hazm 2–1 Damac | 1.60–1.19 | 47% · 25% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Al-Hazm |
| Al-Ittihad FC 2–1 Al Okhdood | 1.25–0.39 | 58% · 30% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Al-Ittihad FC |
| Al-Nassr 1–0 Al Taawon | 1.97–0.06 | 84% · 15% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Al-Nassr |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.