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9 of 9 matches with xG: 23 goals from 28.3 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab 1–1 Al-Fateh | 2.17–1.48 | 53% · 21% · 26% | Draw against the xG: Al Shabab had 53% |
| NEOM 1–1 Al-Hazm | 2.52–1.32 | 64% · 18% · 19% | Draw against the xG: NEOM had 64% |
| Al Khaleej Saihat 3–1 Al Najma | 2.04–1.12 | 59% · 21% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Al Khaleej Saihat |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–0 Damac | 1.71–0.14 | 78% · 20% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC |
| Al Riyadh 0–4 Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1.07–4.38 | 4% · 7% · 89% | Win in line with xG for Al-Qadisiyah FC |
| Al Taawon 0–2 Al-Ittihad FC | 1.87–0.69 | 66% · 21% · 13% | Won against the xG: Al-Ittihad FC |
| Al-Nassr 2–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah | 0.48–0.17 | 33% · 57% · 10% | Close call, Al-Nassr won |
| Al Okhdood 1–3 Al-Ettifaq | 2.94–2.55 | 48% · 17% · 35% | Close call, Al-Ettifaq won |
| Al Kholood 1–1 Al-Fayha | 1.13–0.49 | 52% · 32% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Al Kholood had 52% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.