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6 of 9 matches with xG: 18 goals from 18.2 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Faisaly FC 3–2 Al Kholood | 1.87–2.80 | 25% · 18% · 58% | Won against the xG: Al-Faisaly FC |
| Al Khaleej Saihat 2–0 Al-Fayha | 1.74–0.87 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Al Khaleej Saihat |
| Al-Hazm 2–3 Al-Fateh | 2.25–2.66 | 34% · 18% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Al-Fateh |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Abha | 1.73–0.34 | 72% · 21% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Al-Qadisiyah FC |
| NEOM 0–1 Al-Ettifaq | 0.74–0.16 | 47% · 46% · 7% | Won against the xG: Al-Ettifaq |
| Al Diriyah 1–1 Al Taawon | 2.04–1.02 | 61% · 21% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Al Diriyah had 61% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.