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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 23.2 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves 3–1 Granada CF | 0.83–1.14 | 27% · 31% · 43% | Won against the xG: Alaves |
| Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Barcelona | 0.74–1.04 | 26% · 33% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Valencia 0–0 Celta Vigo | 0.52–0.78 | 22% · 39% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Getafe 2–1 Almeria | 1.17–1.87 | 24% · 23% · 54% | Won against the xG: Getafe |
| Atletico Madrid 1–0 Mallorca | 1.75–0.99 | 55% · 24% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Madrid |
| Villarreal 3–1 Osasuna | 2.52–1.02 | 70% · 17% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Villarreal |
| Real Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla | 0.70–0.59 | 33% · 40% · 27% | Close call, Real Sociedad won |
| Cadiz 0–3 Real Madrid | 1.21–1.59 | 29% · 25% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Real Betis 1–0 Las Palmas | 1.44–0.63 | 57% · 27% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Real Betis |
| Girona 1–1 Athletic Club | 1.27–1.42 | 34% · 26% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.