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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 25.8 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo 1–0 Almeria | 1.41–0.11 | 72% · 25% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Celta Vigo |
| Sevilla 3–2 Real Sociedad | 1.99–1.49 | 49% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Sevilla |
| Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Cadiz | 0.70–1.46 | 18% · 27% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Cadiz had 55% |
| Getafe 3–3 Las Palmas | 2.29–1.51 | 55% · 20% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Getafe had 55% |
| Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid | 1.15–2.21 | 19% · 20% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Real Madrid had 61% |
| Villarreal 5–1 Granada CF | 2.06–0.51 | 74% · 18% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Villarreal |
| Atletico Madrid 2–1 Real Betis | 3.04–0.58 | 86% · 10% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Madrid |
| Mallorca 1–0 Girona | 1.25–1.01 | 42% · 28% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Mallorca |
| Athletic Club 0–0 Barcelona | 0.33–0.67 | 16% · 45% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Osasuna 1–0 Alaves | 0.98–1.03 | 33% · 31% · 36% | Close call, Osasuna won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.