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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 25.3 xG (1.07 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves 2–2 Girona | 1.79–1.88 | 37% · 22% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mallorca 1–0 Las Palmas | 0.33–0.38 | 20% · 56% · 24% | Close call, Mallorca won |
| Villarreal 3–2 Sevilla | 3.33–1.74 | 68% · 15% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Villarreal |
| Granada CF 0–4 Real Madrid | 0.90–1.89 | 17% · 22% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Athletic Club 2–2 Osasuna | 1.33–1.14 | 41% · 27% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cadiz 1–0 Getafe | 1.54–0.44 | 65% · 25% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Cadiz |
| Atletico Madrid 1–0 Celta Vigo | 1.48–0.47 | 62% · 26% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Madrid |
| Valencia 0–0 Rayo Vallecano | 1.31–0.57 | 55% · 29% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Valencia had 55% |
| Real Betis 3–2 Almeria | 0.77–1.17 | 24% · 31% · 45% | Won against the xG: Real Betis |
| Barcelona 2–0 Real Sociedad | 2.15–0.67 | 72% · 18% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Barcelona |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.