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10 of 10 matches with xG: 35 goals from 27.9 xG (1.25 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves 0–2 Athletic Club | 1.15–1.73 | 25% · 24% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Girona 5–3 Mallorca | 3.22–1.79 | 66% · 15% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Girona |
| Osasuna 0–0 Sevilla | 1.42–0.77 | 52% · 27% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Osasuna had 52% |
| Barcelona 3–2 Celta Vigo | 1.59–1.54 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Barcelona |
| Almeria 2–2 Valencia | 2.67–0.76 | 78% · 14% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Almeria had 78% |
| Real Sociedad 4–3 Getafe | 1.95–1.47 | 49% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Real Sociedad |
| Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Villarreal | 1.21–1.64 | 28% · 24% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Real Betis 1–1 Cadiz | 1.86–0.22 | 78% · 18% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Real Betis had 78% |
| Las Palmas 1–0 Granada CF | 0.60–0.04 | 44% · 54% · 2% | Close call, Las Palmas won |
| Atletico Madrid 3–1 Real Madrid | 1.29–1.01 | 43% · 28% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Madrid |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.