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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 33.1 xG (0.91 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona 1–0 Sevilla | 2.43–1.11 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Barcelona |
| Getafe 0–0 Villarreal | 0.83–0.14 | 52% · 42% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Getafe had 52% |
| Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Mallorca | 2.30–1.47 | 56% · 20% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Rayo Vallecano had 56% |
| Girona 0–3 Real Madrid | 1.59–2.38 | 25% · 19% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Real Sociedad 3–0 Athletic Club | 1.45–1.82 | 31% · 23% · 46% | Close call, Real Sociedad won |
| Almeria 3–3 Granada CF | 2.92–2.89 | 42% · 17% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Alaves 0–2 Osasuna | 1.50–1.12 | 46% · 26% · 28% | Won against the xG: Osasuna |
| Atletico Madrid 3–2 Cadiz | 2.76–0.84 | 77% · 14% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Madrid |
| Real Betis 3–0 Valencia | 1.62–0.66 | 61% · 24% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Real Betis |
| Las Palmas 2–1 Celta Vigo | 1.70–1.54 | 42% · 23% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Las Palmas |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.