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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 26.5 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club 3–0 Almeria | 1.92–0.10 | 83% · 16% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Cadiz 0–1 Girona | 0.43–1.21 | 13% · 31% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Girona |
| Real Madrid 4–0 Osasuna | 3.46–0.46 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Mallorca 1–1 Valencia | 0.58–0.55 | 29% · 43% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sevilla 2–2 Rayo Vallecano | 1.03–1.05 | 34% · 30% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Villarreal 1–2 Las Palmas | 0.99–1.12 | 32% · 30% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Las Palmas |
| Atletico Madrid 2–1 Real Sociedad | 2.33–1.24 | 62% · 19% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Madrid |
| Celta Vigo 2–2 Getafe | 2.89–0.74 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Celta Vigo had 81% |
| Alaves 1–1 Real Betis | 1.38–0.93 | 47% · 27% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Granada CF 2–2 Barcelona | 0.73–3.32 | 5% · 9% · 86% | Draw against the xG: Barcelona had 86% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.