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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 26.1 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol 1–0 Getafe | 0.37–0.47 | 21% · 51% · 28% | Close call, Espanyol won |
| Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Valencia | 0.56–1.94 | 10% · 20% · 70% | Draw against the xG: Valencia had 70% |
| Barcelona 4–3 Celta Vigo | 2.46–1.97 | 49% · 19% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Barcelona |
| Mallorca 0–0 Leganes | 0.96–0.88 | 36% · 32% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Las Palmas 1–0 Atletico Madrid | 0.61–0.80 | 25% · 38% · 37% | Close call, Las Palmas won |
| Valladolid 2–3 Osasuna | 1.91–2.35 | 32% · 20% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Osasuna |
| Villarreal 2–2 Real Sociedad | 1.94–2.02 | 38% · 21% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sevilla 1–1 Alaves | 1.72–1.02 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Sevilla had 54% |
| Real Madrid 1–0 Athletic Club | 1.51–0.19 | 72% · 24% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Girona 1–3 Real Betis | 0.91–1.54 | 22% · 26% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Real Betis |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.