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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 23.7 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis 1–0 Alaves | 1.95–1.12 | 57% · 22% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Real Betis |
| Mallorca 1–1 Celta Vigo | 0.68–0.74 | 29% · 38% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atletico Madrid 1–1 Elche | 1.74–0.57 | 66% · 22% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Atletico Madrid had 66% |
| Levante 2–3 Barcelona | 2.14–1.93 | 44% · 20% · 36% | Close call, Barcelona won |
| Osasuna 1–0 Valencia | 0.83–0.41 | 43% · 40% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Osasuna |
| Real Sociedad 2–2 Espanyol | 1.09–1.81 | 23% · 23% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Espanyol had 54% |
| Villarreal 5–0 Girona | 2.30–0.14 | 87% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Villarreal |
| Oviedo 0–3 Real Madrid | 0.50–2.68 | 5% · 12% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Athletic Club 1–0 Rayo Vallecano | 1.51–0.29 | 69% · 25% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Sevilla 1–2 Getafe | 0.51–0.71 | 23% · 41% · 36% | Close call, Getafe won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.