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10 of 10 matches with xG: 25 goals from 28.9 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol 1–2 Alaves | 0.69–1.24 | 21% · 30% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Alaves |
| Oviedo 1–0 Girona | 1.40–0.65 | 55% · 28% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Oviedo |
| Osasuna 2–2 Villarreal | 1.37–0.92 | 47% · 28% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Levante 0–0 Atletico Madrid | 0.37–0.86 | 15% · 39% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Elche 1–3 Barcelona | 1.00–6.44 | 1% · 2% · 97% | Win in line with xG for Barcelona |
| Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano | 2.21–1.03 | 64% · 19% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Real Betis 2–1 Valencia | 1.87–1.90 | 39% · 21% · 40% | Close call, Real Betis won |
| Getafe 0–0 Celta Vigo | 0.35–0.18 | 25% · 63% · 12% | Draw in line with xG |
| Athletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad | 0.97–1.66 | 22% · 24% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Real Sociedad had 54% |
| Mallorca 4–1 Sevilla | 2.63–1.13 | 69% · 16% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Mallorca |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.