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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 32.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club 2–1 Elche | 2.97–0.82 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Real Sociedad 3–3 Oviedo | 2.00–1.68 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Real Betis 1–1 Rayo Vallecano | 1.86–0.88 | 60% · 22% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Real Betis had 60% |
| Osasuna 2–1 Real Madrid | 2.29–1.70 | 51% · 20% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Osasuna |
| Atletico Madrid 4–2 Espanyol | 3.12–1.06 | 78% · 13% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Madrid |
| Getafe 0–1 Sevilla | 0.32–0.32 | 21% · 58% · 21% | Close call, Sevilla won |
| Barcelona 3–0 Levante | 2.88–0.53 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Barcelona |
| Celta Vigo 2–0 Mallorca | 2.51–0.04 | 91% · 9% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Celta Vigo |
| Villarreal 2–1 Valencia | 2.06–1.55 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Villarreal |
| Alaves 2–2 Girona | 1.87–2.22 | 33% · 20% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.