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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 23.0 xG (1.26 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo 2–3 Levante | 2.18–1.52 | 53% · 21% · 27% | Won against the xG: Levante |
| Real Betis 2–1 Elche | 1.80–0.40 | 72% · 21% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Real Betis |
| Osasuna 1–2 Atletico Madrid | 2.30–1.56 | 54% · 20% · 26% | Won against the xG: Atletico Madrid |
| Espanyol 2–0 Athletic Club | 0.76–0.82 | 30% · 36% · 34% | Close call, Espanyol won |
| Villarreal 2–3 Sevilla | 0.83–0.87 | 32% · 34% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Sevilla |
| Alaves 1–0 Barcelona | 0.66–0.59 | 32% · 41% · 27% | Close call, Alaves won |
| Getafe 3–1 Mallorca | 1.58–0.41 | 67% · 24% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Getafe |
| Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano | 0.76–1.16 | 24% · 31% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Girona 1–1 Real Sociedad | 2.11–0.33 | 79% · 16% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Girona had 79% |
| Real Madrid 2–0 Oviedo | 1.36–1.04 | 44% · 27% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.