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15 of 15 matches with xG: 42 goals from 36.3 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte 2–0 Atlanta United FC | 1.40–0.76 | 52% · 27% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| Real Salt Lake 2–0 Seattle Sounders | 1.07–0.86 | 40% · 31% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| New England Revolution 0–1 Columbus Crew | 0.23–0.37 | 15% · 60% · 26% | Close call, Columbus Crew won |
| New York Red Bulls 2–0 Nashville SC | 1.95–0.88 | 62% · 21% · 16% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FC | 1.56–0.38 | 67% · 24% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC Cincinnati | 3.20–1.06 | 79% · 12% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Chicago Fire 2–2 DC United | 2.50–3.17 | 31% · 17% · 53% | Draw against the xG: DC United had 53% |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–2 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.74–1.61 | 41% · 23% · 36% | Close call, San Jose Earthquakes won |
| Minnesota United FC 1–0 CF Montreal | 1.63–0.16 | 75% · 21% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Colorado Rapids 3–3 FC Dallas | 1.88–1.99 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| LAFC 1–0 New York City FC | 0.49–0.37 | 29% · 50% · 21% | Close call, LAFC won |
| Portland Timbers 1–0 Austin | 0.59–0.75 | 26% · 39% · 35% | Close call, Portland Timbers won |
| San Diego 0–0 St. Louis City SC | 0.97–0.09 | 59% · 38% · 3% | Draw against the xG: San Diego had 59% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 LA Galaxy | 1.89–0.41 | 73% · 19% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Houston Dynamo 1–4 Inter Miami | 0.65–1.73 | 14% · 23% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.