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15 of 15 matches with xG: 35 goals from 40.3 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew 0–0 Houston Dynamo | 0.63–0.32 | 37% · 47% · 16% | Draw in line with xG |
| Seattle Sounders 5–2 LAFC | 1.69–1.29 | 47% · 24% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| Atlanta United FC 0–0 New York Red Bulls | 1.24–0.36 | 59% · 30% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Atlanta United FC had 59% |
| FC Cincinnati 2–0 Toronto FC | 1.64–0.25 | 73% · 22% · 5% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| DC United 2–1 Sporting Kansas City | 1.85–0.45 | 72% · 20% · 8% | Win in line with xG for DC United |
| New England Revolution 0–2 Philadelphia Union | 0.36–1.23 | 11% · 30% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| New York City FC 2–1 Orlando City SC | 2.58–1.28 | 65% · 17% · 17% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| Austin 0–1 Colorado Rapids | 1.36–0.81 | 50% · 28% · 22% | Won against the xG: Colorado Rapids |
| FC Dallas 1–3 Chicago Fire | 1.76–1.74 | 39% · 22% · 38% | Close call, Chicago Fire won |
| Nashville SC 2–0 Portland Timbers | 2.71–0.50 | 84% · 12% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 2–0 CF Montreal | 1.58–1.43 | 41% · 24% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Real Salt Lake 1–3 San Diego | 2.09–2.47 | 34% · 19% · 47% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Minnesota United FC | 1.38–2.10 | 25% · 21% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Inter Miami 1–0 Charlotte | 0.66–0.72 | 29% · 39% · 33% | Close call, Inter Miami won |
| LA Galaxy 0–3 St. Louis City SC | 1.80–1.98 | 36% · 21% · 43% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.