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15 of 15 matches with xG: 38 goals from 38.6 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls 2–2 Orlando City SC | 2.73–1.69 | 60% · 18% · 23% | Draw against the xG: New York Red Bulls had 60% |
| Toronto FC 1–2 Chicago Fire | 0.61–1.08 | 21% · 33% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| LAFC 0–1 Austin | 0.75–1.21 | 23% · 30% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Austin |
| DC United 0–0 CF Montreal | 1.51–0.67 | 58% · 26% · 16% | Draw against the xG: DC United had 58% |
| Charlotte 2–0 FC Cincinnati | 1.48–0.83 | 53% · 26% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| New York City FC 2–1 New England Revolution | 1.15–0.46 | 53% · 32% · 15% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Minnesota United FC | 0.44–2.42 | 5% · 14% · 81% | Draw against the xG: Minnesota United FC had 81% |
| FC Dallas 0–1 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.24–0.84 | 10% · 41% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Houston Dynamo 1–2 Real Salt Lake | 2.15–0.94 | 65% · 20% · 15% | Won against the xG: Real Salt Lake |
| St. Louis City SC 1–0 Seattle Sounders | 1.09–0.78 | 43% · 32% · 26% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Colorado Rapids | 2.51–1.85 | 53% · 19% · 28% | Won against the xG: Colorado Rapids |
| San Diego 1–1 Columbus Crew | 2.07–0.93 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Draw against the xG: San Diego had 64% |
| Philadelphia Union 1–3 Nashville SC | 2.03–1.68 | 46% · 21% · 32% | Close call, Nashville SC won |
| Portland Timbers 1–1 LA Galaxy | 0.69–0.72 | 30% · 38% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atlanta United FC 1–2 Inter Miami | 1.29–1.77 | 28% · 23% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.